Saturday, August 24, 2013

Changi races against time and rivals


Changi Airport's glass-and-steel Project Jewel will glint in its crown as a centre of retail and recreational indulgence by 2018, but analysts are keenly watching the airport's less glitzy facilities - its terminals and runways.

The mammoth expansion over the next 10 years will be crucial as Changi goes up against its neighbours' own ambitious aviation expansion plans.

While the expansions and new passenger terminals will double Changi Airport's current capacity of 66 million passengers annually in about a decade - it is the third runway, slated for 2020, that some in the industry are focusing on.

"The most pressing issue for Singapore and Changi is runway congestion. It's not necessarily terminal congestion or transit experiences," said Brendan Sobie of Capa - Centre for Aviation.

"They need to move forward with the third runway as soon as possible to catch up and get ahead of the curve again for the next couple of decades."

Since 2009, commercial aircraft movements at Changi Airport have grown at a rapid clip, surging 35 per cent to 324,722 aircraft last year as budget travel took off at a rate for which the aviation industry was unprepared.

In the three years before 2009, the growth rate over the same length of time for aircraft had been only 12 per cent.

Hong Kong, which found itself in the same runway predicament, is now planning its own third runway, to be commissioned in 2023.

When it is completed, Hong Kong International Airport will be able to handle 97 million passengers.

In this respect, Singapore will be ahead of the race for runway capacity, with its new runway slated to be done within the decade.

"A third runway and additional terminal should give them a lot of space for a long time. This should satisfy their growth needs for the next couple of decades, probably," Mr Sobie said.

Where terminal expansion is concerned, the new terminals are being planned following a rakish pace of growth over the last decade.

This year, passenger numbers - already clocking 26.2 million passengers at the midway point of June - look set to surpass last year's.

As part of Project Jewel's development, Terminal 1 will be expanded, with more space for the arrival hall, baggage claim areas and taxi bays, Changi Airport Group said on Monday.

This will increase its current capacity of 18 million passengers a year to 24 million. When Terminal 4 is completed in 2017, capacity will grow to 85 million passenger movements a year.

Terminal 5 - slated to for completion in about a decade - will round out this expansion spurt, doubling today's capacity to 132 million passengers annually.

It has not been revealed how much Terminal 5 will cost, but as a frame of reference, Terminal 4 is estimated to cost about $600 million with another $680 million estimated for additional parking stands and supporting airfield infrastructure, among other things.

On Monday, Changi Airport Group also revealed part of the retail firepower that it has planned for its multi-use complex, Project Jewel, which will link Terminals 1, 2 and 3. The group has signed a memorandum of understanding with a unit of CapitaMalls Asia to develop the concept and plans for the project.

The finalisation of plans and exploration of a joint-venture partnership between the airport group and property developer are expected to be done by year-end.

Changi's ambitions, both in the space and ambience department, are being met handily by competing airports in the region. South Korea's Incheon Airport's plans stretch into 2020, when it envisions having four runways and a passenger capacity of 100 million annually.

While Singapore may be matching its neighbours expansion-for-expansion, it also has more to lose.

"Singapore does not have domestic air travel whereas the rest of our competitors do. We're purely an international gateway, so we're very much dependent on tourist arrivals," said K Ajith of UOB Kay Hian.

As with all expansions in the face of roaring trades, constraints might tighten before they ease.

"Changi, once this massive project opens, will have caught up and be in a competitive position compared to all the other airports, potentially... but in the meantime, it's going to be a situation where for several years, Changi is going to have to be very selective in terms of adding flights," CAPA's Mr Sobie added.

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